Vol. 3 (5) : September-October 2012 issue
Green Farming Vol. 3 (5) : 560-563 (September-October, 2012)
An analysis of the behavior pattern of wholesale prices in relation to spot and future prices in Indian chilli futures trading market
GANESHGOUDA I. PATIL1, VENKATAREDDY2, VASUDEVA NAIK K.3 and SUJATA4*
Department of Agribusiness Management, University of Agricl. Sciences, GKVK, Dharwad - 580 005 (Karnataka)
Designation : 1,3,4Res. Scholar *(sujata.somashekar@gmail.com), 2Professor
Subject : Agriculture Economics, Agri-Business, Marketing & Statistics, Farm Management
Paper No. :
Total Pages : 4
Received : 21 June 2012
Revised accepted : 13 August 2012
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Citation :
GANESHGOUDA I. PATIL, VENKATAREDDY, VASUDEVA NAIK K. and SUJATA. 2012. An analysis of the behavior pattern of wholesale prices in relation to spot and future prices in Indian chilli futures trading market. Green Farming Vol. 3 (5) : 560-563 ; September-October, 2012
ABSTRACT
The present study was undertaken to study the behavior of wholesales prices in relation to spot and future prices of Guntur chillies. The analytical tools employed for the study was ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) to forecast the both spot and futures price so, that it explains the behavior of wholesales prices after introduction of futures price. Both spot and futures prices were co-related meaning that there exists a long-run price equilibrium relationship between these prices. However, the forecasted value of chilli futures prices show a decreasing trend meaning that prices of chilli is expected to go down in the month end of May. It can also conclude that seventh day of futures market price lead first day as well as second day of Guntur spot market price.
Key words :
ARIMA model, ADF test, Chilli, Forecasted value, Pungency, Spot market price.
