Vol. 7 (1) : January-February 2016 issue
Green Farming Vol. 7 (1) : 233-236 ; January-February, 2016
An empirical investigation of ARIMA and GARCH models in forecasting for horticultural fruits of India
SOUMIK RAY1*, BANJUL BHATTACHARYYA2 and RAMESH DASYAM3
Deptt. of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia - 741 252 (West Bengal)
Designation : 1,3Res. Scholar *(raysoumik4@gmail.com), 2Assoc. Professor
Subject : Horticulture (Spices, Ornamental & Plantation Crops, Floriculture and Landscape Architecture etc.)
Paper No. : P-3594
Total Pages : 4
Received : 24 February 2015
Revised accepted : 30 December 2015
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Citation :
SOUMIK RAY, BANJUL BHATTACHARYYA and RAMESH DASYAM. 2016. An empirical investigation of ARIMA and GARCH models in forecasting for horticultural fruits of India. Green Farming Vol. 7 (1) : 233-236 ; January-February, 2016
ABSTRACT
India being the second largest producer of fruits after China at contributing 24.5% of GDP from 8% land area. This study made an attempt to forecast the area and production of fruits in India by using Box and Jenkins methodology of univariate Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. For empirical analysis a set of six different fruit crops and total fruits in India were considered with available annual data from 1980 to 2011 and forecasted values were obtained for another eight years since 2018. The validity of the model was verified with various model selection criteria such as minimum values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (SBC) and high R2. Among the selected crops, ARIMA models were found suitable and hence forecasting was done by this method only to the respective crops.
Key words :
ARIMA, GARCH, Forecast for fruits, MAPE, Production, SBC.
