Vol. 10 (6) : November-December 2019 issue
Green Farming Vol. 10 (6) : 752-755 ; November-December, 2019
Forecasting market prices of soybean in Ujjain market (Madhya Pradesh)
A.K. GUPTAa1*, C. PATRAa2 and A.K. SINGHb3
aDepartment of Agricultural Statistics, Institute of Agriculture, Visva Bharati, Shantiniketan - 731 236 (West Bengal),
bDept. of Agricultural Statistics & Social Science (L.), College of Agriculture, IGKV, Raipur - 492 012 (Chhattisgarh)
Designation : 1,2Ph.D. Scholar *(ak1947rocks@gmail.com), 3Professor & Head
Subject : Agriculture Economics, Agri-Business, Marketing & Statistics, Farm Management
Paper No. : P-7792
Total Pages : 4
Received : 10 November 2019
Revised accepted : 26 November 2019
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Citation :
A.K. GUPTA, C. PATRA and A.K. SINGH. 2019. Forecasting market prices of soybean in Ujjain market (Madhya Pradesh). Green Farming Vol. 10 (6) : 752-755 ; November-December, 2019
ABSTRACT
Soybean (Glycine max) is one of the most important oilseed crops of Madhya Pradesh. In Madhya Pradesh, Ujjain district is highest producer of soybean. This study is an attempt to forecast the soybean prices in Ujjain market. Time series data of monthly average wholesale soybean prices from January, 2002 to October, 2020 (214 months) was collected for the study. The seasonal ARIMA model was used for the modeling of price and best model was selected on the basis of lowest AIC and MAPE values. The best identified model was ARIMA (2,1,2) (0,0,2)[12]. The fitted values for the sample period were closer to real time price values. The best identified model was used for predicting the future prices of 12 months (November, 2019 to October, 2020). The forecasted price rises from the month of February, 2020 and stabilizes thereafter. The analysis was done in “R” statistical software.
Key words :
ARIMA, AIC, MAPE, Forecasting, Soybean, Time Series.
